Fear & Uncertainty

Like most people in the world, my eyes have been glued to the news since Trump announced his tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day.” I watched the event live and haven’t been able to turn my TV off since.

If you’re not aware, Trump’s tariff plan applies to most countries around the world (including places like Norfolk Island, where mostly penguins live).

A tariff, put simply, is not a new concept. You might have paid “customs duty” on a package delivered from abroad. It’s essentially the same thing.

For example, let’s say you were a Caribbean island like Trinidad. You might apply a 25% tariff on rum from outside CARICOM to protect the local rum industry (which is why White Oak is so cheap).

Funnily enough, Trinidad also has a 30% tariff on DVD players. I think someone added that and just forgot to remove it. Bureaucracy at its finest.

But importantly, tariffs are paid by consumers within a country. They make buying foreign goods more expensive and incentivise the purchase of locally made products. Tariffs are usually targeted at specific goods.

So what happens when the world’s largest economy applies blanket tariffs on every country at a base rate of 10%?

Markets panic. That’s what happens.

No one really knows the outcome of this economic policy, and when there’s uncertainty, that’s never good for business. Large institutional investors need certainty, so they pull money out of equities and flock to safer assets like government bonds (or “gilts,” as they’re called in the UK).

Long story short: millions and millions of people have opened their investment accounts and discovered that the value of their portfolios has dropped over the past three days, and there’s no end in sight.

This, combined with media fear-mongering, will inevitably leave many feeling very worried (myself included). This is the first major economic event that has directly impacted me (I was 7 during the 2008 financial crisis).

If you know me personally, you know I’ve always been a big advocate for investing. Three years ago, I opened an account and haven’t looked back since.

That’s why I chose to write about investing during this period. People only go on about it when things are going RIGHT. I’d like to capture what’s going on in my mind when everything seems to be going wrong.

Firstly, you should understand my personal investing philosophy:

Principle	Belief
I don’t invest money I need in the short term	I have an emergency fund that I don’t touch. My investments are kept at a comfortable percentage of my wider portfolio.
I do not gamble	Money is important. I don’t invest in individual stocks or crypto or engage in day trading.
I keep it simple	I invest in ONE global index fund. Nothing more, nothing less.
I keep it diversified	That one fund (FTSE All-World UCITS ETF) includes around 3,600 stocks from major markets across the world.
I have a long-term time horizon	I believe in global progress over 50+ years.
I am consistent	I invest the same amount monthly via an automated debit, no matter what.

I’m not qualified to give financial advice, nor do I care to.

But I do encourage my friends to start thinking about their savings. People often raise the same objections to investing:

1. “The market is bad right now, I’ll wait.” - No one, not even Warren Buffett, knows where the market will go. Think long term.
2. “I don’t have enough money to invest.” - This idea usually stems from the hefty account minimums that once existed in traditional investing. Nowadays, many brokers allow fractional shares, even as low as £1 or $1. The habit of consistent investing is more important than the amount. Personal finance books will tell you to “Pay Yourself First”. That is, set aside some money for investing/saving first, before allocating to things like your rent/groceries etc.
3. “I don’t know enough about it.” - This objection disproportionately comes from my friends that are girls. My guess is that investing has not traditionally been seen as very “feminine”. In my opinion, I view financial independence of a woman as a core principle of feminism.

I do, however, believe people should consider their own circumstances and invest what they can. This is why I will not disclose any personal details here to avoid any comparison. People who encourage you to stick to very specific figures and percentages? Use them as guides rather than strict rules. Ultimately, do whatever allows you to sleep best at night.

You should know: the value of your investments can go DOWN.
My portfolio is currently in the red.
I can confirm first hand that the pain of losing is much greater than the joy of winning.

But it’s been red many times before. And it’s been green many times before. I expect this will continue, with my portfolio fluctuating depending on the timeframe viewed.

How does it feel?
Scary.
I’m human too.

So I’ve deleted the brokerage app.
I’ll avoid watching the news.
I’ll stay level-headed and avoid impulsive decisions.

As Charlie Munger puts it:
“The most important thing about compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

I’ll stay the course and remain disciplined.

Because over the long term, this will go back to green.
I just can’t tell if it’ll take 3 months or 30 years.
Both scenarios are possible.

And finally, before I sign off, I’ll leave you with this:

When you’re winning, you’re not as good as you think you are.
When you’re losing, you’re not as bad as you think you are.